One of the scientific facets of our governmental process is gauging public opinion. We would describe public opinion as the collective set of preferences that people have about a person, event, or issue. Politicians have many different uses for measuring public opinion, but the most obvious is that they wish to determine precisely what the people need and want.
Other than catering to the voters, politicians use public opinion for other purposes, such as making predictions about elections. People are constantly being asked about elections and the candidates they prefer, which gives everyone an idea about what an election outcome may look like. Public opinion also tells us how people might act, and how strongly they feel about particular issues.
To measure public opinion, various groups determined they would conduct polls to assess how people were thinking and feeling. George Gallup revolutionized the practice of polling in the 1930s when he hoped to provide an objective assessment about public opinion. By taking a scientific approach to the process, Gallup was able to make accurate predictions about elections and other issues. Today, the Gallup Poll is one of the most credible consulting firms in measuring public opinion.
How are polls actually conducted?
It would be nice if polling groups could contact every American to figure out how they think and feel, but speaking to all 300 million citizens would impossible. The scientific approach to solving this problem would be similar to the process of testing a river to see if the water was polluted. You couldn't test every drop of water, so instead, you would take random samples to study. Polling institutions work in the same way. They can't contact every American, so instead they poll only a random sample.
How many people would you need to poll to have an accurate representation of what 300 million Americans think? Science demonstrates that having only 1,000-2,000 people in a poll will provide an accurate reflection of public opinion.
Another problem polling groups had to overcome was how they should contact the people being polled. They had to determine a method of contacting people where they could conceivably come into contact with anyone in the area they were polling (which was the entire nation). The best solution for Gallup and other institutions was to contact people via telephone. Most people have a telephone in their home and they all go home at some point, thus it's possible to randomly come in contact with everyone in that manner.
Public opinion polls have become remarkably successful in demonstrating how Americans feel about particular topics, and these polls are effective in making predictions in elections. Polling institutions are so good at what they do, people only tend to remember when they are incorrect. For instance, in the close Presidential Election of 2000, polls predicted Al Gore would win the state of Florida, and the presidency. Critics of polls laughed when George W. Bush won both Florida and the White House, but what people forget was that the polls correctly predicted the other 49 states. They also forgot that polls tend to be correct in their election predictions at an astonishingly high rate.
Though polls are accurate and typically trustworthy, they aren't perfect. Every poll conducted has a margin of error, which means the results could be off in either direction, plus or minus a few percentage points. For example, a poll might say that President Obama has an approval rating of 44% with a margin of error of +/- 3%. This means the approval rating of 44% could be as high as 47%, or as low as 41%.
Part of conducting a reliable opinion poll also comes from asking questions that are free from potential bias, as brief as possible, and have a limited set of answers. Leaving a question open-ended makes organizing the results nearly impossible and lengthens the amount of time a worker spends conducting the poll.
How a question is worded can greatly affect how people will respond. Examine the questions below and see how the addition of one extra phrase could alter responses:
Other than gauging how people feel about issues and election predictions, polls also measure intensity, salience, and latency. Intensity refers to how strongly people feel about a particular issue. Salience demonstrates where a particular issue is on a person's list of priorities. Latency deals with unformed opinions people typically have to form on the spot because they are unaware.
Change in Public Opinion and the Effect of Americans
An interesting facet about public opinion is the slow rate of change it takes on most issues. Deeply held beliefs of Americans are very slow to evolve, if at all. Think of the more divisive issues in the United States today and try to imagine what people believed about that same issue 40 years ago. Those beliefs have probably remained the same or slowly changed over that time.
For instance, the issue of same-sex marriage in 1974 was practically unthinkable in even some of the nation's most liberal states. Today, the concept of same-sex marriage has become more mainstream, but it wasn't a sudden shift.
Public opinion, however, can change dramatically in the wake of some type of drastic event, such as the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. After President George W. Bush's response to these attacks, his approval ratings soared from around 50% to nearly 88%.
Can you answer: what major events have caused dramatic shifts in public opinion?
Another important question to consider in looking at public opinion is "how much effect does the public have on the decisions of politicians?" That question doesn't have a concrete answer, but the effect of opinion polls must have some effect or there wouldn't be a market for doing the work. Members of government must pay attention to the wishes of their constituents if they hope to be re-elected.
What do polls reveal about the political knowledge of Americans?
When we examine what American citizens know about politics and their governmental system, the results are disappointing. Americans tend to know only about the things in life that don't really matter. Citizens tend to have surprisingly high levels of knowledge about popular culture, but not so much about politics.
One of the most significant revelations from public opinion is the overwhelming decline in trust that Americans have in their government. Americans once held their government in high regard, believing officials would usually do what's right. However, history has taught Americans to be very skeptical of the government. The monumental mistakes made during the Vietnam War, the Watergate scandal, and other blunders demonstrated how politicians have outright lied to the public. Now, citizens are much more hesitant to trust either party.
The decline in trust in government often has resulted in more divided government, where one party congtrols one or both houses in Congress and the other party controls the White House. Divided government often leads to policy gridlock.
Can you answer: what other consequences would result from a distrust of government?
Other than catering to the voters, politicians use public opinion for other purposes, such as making predictions about elections. People are constantly being asked about elections and the candidates they prefer, which gives everyone an idea about what an election outcome may look like. Public opinion also tells us how people might act, and how strongly they feel about particular issues.
To measure public opinion, various groups determined they would conduct polls to assess how people were thinking and feeling. George Gallup revolutionized the practice of polling in the 1930s when he hoped to provide an objective assessment about public opinion. By taking a scientific approach to the process, Gallup was able to make accurate predictions about elections and other issues. Today, the Gallup Poll is one of the most credible consulting firms in measuring public opinion.
How are polls actually conducted?
It would be nice if polling groups could contact every American to figure out how they think and feel, but speaking to all 300 million citizens would impossible. The scientific approach to solving this problem would be similar to the process of testing a river to see if the water was polluted. You couldn't test every drop of water, so instead, you would take random samples to study. Polling institutions work in the same way. They can't contact every American, so instead they poll only a random sample.
How many people would you need to poll to have an accurate representation of what 300 million Americans think? Science demonstrates that having only 1,000-2,000 people in a poll will provide an accurate reflection of public opinion.
Another problem polling groups had to overcome was how they should contact the people being polled. They had to determine a method of contacting people where they could conceivably come into contact with anyone in the area they were polling (which was the entire nation). The best solution for Gallup and other institutions was to contact people via telephone. Most people have a telephone in their home and they all go home at some point, thus it's possible to randomly come in contact with everyone in that manner.
Public opinion polls have become remarkably successful in demonstrating how Americans feel about particular topics, and these polls are effective in making predictions in elections. Polling institutions are so good at what they do, people only tend to remember when they are incorrect. For instance, in the close Presidential Election of 2000, polls predicted Al Gore would win the state of Florida, and the presidency. Critics of polls laughed when George W. Bush won both Florida and the White House, but what people forget was that the polls correctly predicted the other 49 states. They also forgot that polls tend to be correct in their election predictions at an astonishingly high rate.
Though polls are accurate and typically trustworthy, they aren't perfect. Every poll conducted has a margin of error, which means the results could be off in either direction, plus or minus a few percentage points. For example, a poll might say that President Obama has an approval rating of 44% with a margin of error of +/- 3%. This means the approval rating of 44% could be as high as 47%, or as low as 41%.
Part of conducting a reliable opinion poll also comes from asking questions that are free from potential bias, as brief as possible, and have a limited set of answers. Leaving a question open-ended makes organizing the results nearly impossible and lengthens the amount of time a worker spends conducting the poll.
How a question is worded can greatly affect how people will respond. Examine the questions below and see how the addition of one extra phrase could alter responses:
- Do you believe all Americans should have quality health care?
- Do you believe all Americans should have quality health care, provided by the federal government?
Other than gauging how people feel about issues and election predictions, polls also measure intensity, salience, and latency. Intensity refers to how strongly people feel about a particular issue. Salience demonstrates where a particular issue is on a person's list of priorities. Latency deals with unformed opinions people typically have to form on the spot because they are unaware.
Change in Public Opinion and the Effect of Americans
An interesting facet about public opinion is the slow rate of change it takes on most issues. Deeply held beliefs of Americans are very slow to evolve, if at all. Think of the more divisive issues in the United States today and try to imagine what people believed about that same issue 40 years ago. Those beliefs have probably remained the same or slowly changed over that time.
For instance, the issue of same-sex marriage in 1974 was practically unthinkable in even some of the nation's most liberal states. Today, the concept of same-sex marriage has become more mainstream, but it wasn't a sudden shift.
Public opinion, however, can change dramatically in the wake of some type of drastic event, such as the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. After President George W. Bush's response to these attacks, his approval ratings soared from around 50% to nearly 88%.
Can you answer: what major events have caused dramatic shifts in public opinion?
Another important question to consider in looking at public opinion is "how much effect does the public have on the decisions of politicians?" That question doesn't have a concrete answer, but the effect of opinion polls must have some effect or there wouldn't be a market for doing the work. Members of government must pay attention to the wishes of their constituents if they hope to be re-elected.
What do polls reveal about the political knowledge of Americans?
When we examine what American citizens know about politics and their governmental system, the results are disappointing. Americans tend to know only about the things in life that don't really matter. Citizens tend to have surprisingly high levels of knowledge about popular culture, but not so much about politics.
One of the most significant revelations from public opinion is the overwhelming decline in trust that Americans have in their government. Americans once held their government in high regard, believing officials would usually do what's right. However, history has taught Americans to be very skeptical of the government. The monumental mistakes made during the Vietnam War, the Watergate scandal, and other blunders demonstrated how politicians have outright lied to the public. Now, citizens are much more hesitant to trust either party.
The decline in trust in government often has resulted in more divided government, where one party congtrols one or both houses in Congress and the other party controls the White House. Divided government often leads to policy gridlock.
Can you answer: what other consequences would result from a distrust of government?
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